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šäœã§éèŠãªããžãã¹æ±ºå®ãå°ãäžã§æ¥µããŠéèŠãªåœ¹å²ãæãããŠããŸããåŸæ¥ãäºæž¬ã¯ ETS ã ARIMA ãªã©ã®çµ±èšã¢ãã« [2] ã«äŸåããŠããŸããããããã®ã¢ãã«ã¯ãç¹ã«ãã¬ãŒãã³ã°ããŒã¿ãéãããŠããå Žåã«ãä»ã§ã匷åãªããŒã¹ã©ã€ã³ãšãªã£ãŠããŸããéå»10幎éã§ã深局åŠç¿ã®é²æ©ã«ããã DeepAR [3] ã PatchTST [4] ãªã©ã®ããããã°ããŒãã«ã¢ãã«ãžã®ã·ãããä¿é²ãããŸããããããã®ã¢ãããŒãã¯ãããŒã¿ã»ããå
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ã«ç°¡çŽ åãããŸããChronos ã®åçš®ã¢ãã«ã¯ã Hugging Face ãã 1 å 2000 äžå以äžããŠã³ããŒããããŠããã Amazon SageMaker AI ã® AutoGluon-TimeSeries ããå©çšã§ããŸãããŸãã Chronos-T5 㯠Amazon SageMaker JumpStart ãéããŠå©çšã§ããŸãã Chronos-Bolt ã®çŽ¹ä» Chronos-Bolt 㯠T5 ãšã³ã³ãŒããŒ-ãã³ãŒããŒã¢ãŒããã¯ã㣠[5] ã«åºã¥ããŠãããçŽ 1000 ååã®ããŒã¿ãã€ã³ãã§åŠç¿ãããŠããŸãããã®ã¢ãã«ã¯ãéå»ã®æç³»åããŒã¿ãè€æ°ã®ããŒã¿ãã€ã³ããããªããããã«åå²ããããããšã³ã³ãŒããŒã«å
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£ããã€ã³ã¿ãŒãã§ãŒã¹ã䜿çšã㊠Chronos-Bolt ãå©çšããæ¹æ³ã玹ä»ããŸããAutoGluon-TimeSeries ã䜿çšããããšã§ãSageMaker ã®ãŠãŒã¶ãŒã¯æç³»åäºæž¬ã®ããã®ã¢ãã«ãæ§ç¯ããã³ãããã€ã§ããŸããããã«ã¯ãChronos-Bolt ãªã©ã® åºç€ã¢ãã«ãä»ã®ã°ããŒãã«ã¢ãã«ãå«ãŸããããã«çµ±èšã¢ãã«ãšå®¹æã«ã¢ã³ãµã³ãã«ããŠç²ŸåºŠãæå€§åããããšãã§ããŸãã Chronos-Bolt ã§è¿œå åŠç¿ãªãã®äºæž¬å®è¡ æ¬ããã°ã§ã¯ Amazon SageMaker Studio Notebook äžã§ Chronos-Bolt ã䜿ã£ãŠè¿œå åŠç¿ãªãã§ã®äºæž¬ãå®è¡ããæ¹æ³ãã玹ä»ããŸãã å§ããã«ã¯ãAmazon SageMaker Studio Notebook ãŸãã¯ã¿ãŒããã«ã§ä»¥äžã®ã³ãã³ããå®è¡ããŠãAutoGluon v1.2 ãã€ã³ã¹ããŒã«ããå¿
èŠããããŸã : pip install autogluon.timeseries~=1.2.0 AutoGluon-TimeSeries ã¯ãæç³»åããŒã¿ã»ãããæ±ãããã« TimeSeriesDataFrame ã䜿çšããŸãã TimeSeriesDataFrame ã¯ã瞊åããŒã¿åœ¢åŒã®ããŒã¿ãã¬ãŒã ãæ³å®ããŠãããå°ãªããšã以äžã® 3 ã€ã®åãå¿
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èŠããããæ¬ æå€ã¯ NaN ã§è¡šãããŸããChronos-Bolt ã¯ããããé©åã«åŠçããŸãã以äžã®ã³ãŒãã¹ããããã¯ããªãŒã¹ãã©ãªã¢ã® 5 ã€ã®å·ã® 30 åééã®é»åéèŠããŒã¿ãå«ããªãŒã¹ãã©ãªã¢é»åããŒã¿ã»ãã [6] ã TimeSeriesDataFrame ã«ããŒãããŸã : from autogluon.timeseries import TimeSeriesDataFrame, TimeSeriesPredictor train_data = TimeSeriesDataFrame.from_path( "https://autogluon.s3.amazonaws.com/datasets/timeseries/australian_electricity_subset/train.csv" , id_column= "item_id" , timestamp_column= "timestamp" , ) 次ã®ã¹ãããã¯ããã®ããŒã¿ã TimeSeriesPredictor ã§ãã£ããã£ã³ã°ããŸã : predictor = TimeSeriesPredictor(prediction_length= 48 ).fit(train_data, presets=" bolt_base ") ããã§ã¯ã TimeSeriesPredictor ãæ¬¡ã® 48 ã¹ãããïŒãã®å Žå㯠1 æ¥åïŒã®äºæž¬ãçæããããæå®ããŠããŸããAutoGluon-TimeSeries ã¯ãäºæž¬ã¢ãã«ã®æ§ç¯æã«äœ¿çšã§ããããŸããŸãªããªã»ãããæäŸããŠããŸãããã®äŸã§äœ¿çšãããŠãã bolt_base ããªã»ããã¯ã远å åŠç¿ãªãã®äºæž¬ã®ããã« Chronos-Boltã®BaseïŒ205MïŒã¢ãã«ããªã¢ã³ããæ¡çšããŠããŸãã远å åŠç¿ãªãã®äºæž¬ã§ã¯ã¢ãã«ã®åŠç¿ãäžèŠãªããã fit() ã®åŒã³åºãã¯ã»ãŒç¬æã«å®äºããŸããããã§äºæž¬ã¢ãã«ã¯è¿œå åŠç¿ãªãã®äºæž¬ãçæããæºåãæŽãã predict ã¡ãœããã䜿çšããŠå®è¡ã§ããŸãã predictions = predictor.predict(train_data) AutoGluon-TimeSeriesã¯ãã¿ãŒã²ããå€ã«å¯ŸããŠç¹äºæž¬ãšç¢ºççäºæž¬ïŒåäœæ°äºæž¬ïŒã®äž¡æ¹ãçæããŸãã確ççäºæž¬ã¯äºæž¬å€ã®äžç¢ºå®æ§ã®ç¯å²ã瀺ããŠãããå€ãã®èšç»ç«æ¡ã«ãããŠéèŠãªåœ¹å²ãæãããŸãã äºæž¬çµæãèŠèŠåããäºæž¬æéã«ããã£ãŠå®éã®ã¿ãŒã²ããå€ãšæ¯èŒããããšãã§ããŸã : test_data = TimeSeriesDataFrame.from_path( "https://autogluon.s3.amazonaws.com/datasets/timeseries/australian_electricity_subset/test.csv" , id_column= "item_id" , timestamp_column= "timestamp" , ) predictor.plot(test_data,predictions,max_history_length= 200 ,item_ids=[ "T000002" ]) Chronos-Bolt ã¯è¿œå åŠç¿ãªãã§é«ç²ŸåºŠã®äºæž¬ãçæããŸãã以äžã®ã°ã©ãã¯ãç¹äºæž¬ãš 80% ä¿¡é Œåºéã瀺ããŠããŸãã AutoGluon ã® Chronos-Bolt ã§ãã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã° ãããŸã§ã远å åŠç¿ããããã« zero-shot ã§äºæž¬ãå®è¡ããæšè«å°çšã®ã¢ãŒãã§ Chronos-Bolt ã䜿çšããŠããŸãããããããAutoGluon-TimeSeries ã䜿çšãããšãç¹å®ã®ããŒã¿ã»ããã«å¯Ÿã㊠Chronos-Bolt ããã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°ããããšãã§ããŸãããã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°ã«ã¯ g5.2xlarge ãªã©ã® GPU ã€ã³ã¹ã¿ã³ã¹ã®äœ¿çšããå§ãããŸãã以äžã®ã³ãŒãã¹ããããã§ã¯ãChronos-Bolt(Smallã48M) ã¢ãã«ã«å¯Ÿã㊠2 ã€ã®èšå®ãæå®ããŠããŸã : 远å åŠç¿ãªãã® zero-shot ãšãã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°ã§ããAutoGluon-TimeSeries ã¯ãæäŸããããã¬ãŒãã³ã°ããŒã¿ã䜿çšããŠãäºååŠç¿æžã¿ã¢ãã«ã®è»œéãªãã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°ãå®è¡ããŸããã¢ãã«ã®è¿œå åŠç¿ãªãããŒãžã§ã³ãšãã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°æžã¿ããŒãžã§ã³ãèå¥ããããã«ãååã«æ¥å°ŸèŸã远å ããŸãã predictor = TimeSeriesPredictor(prediction_length=48, eval_metric="MASE").fit( train_data, hyperparameters={ "Chronos": [ {"model_path": "bolt_small", "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "ZeroShot"}}, {"model_path": "bolt_small", "fine_tune": True, "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "FineTuned"}}, ] }, enable_ensemble=False, time_limit=600, ) äºæž¬ã¢ãã«ã¯ã time_limit ã§æå®ãããæå€§ 10 åéãã£ããã£ã³ã°ãããŸãããã£ããã£ã³ã°ãå®äºããåŸããã¹ãããŒã¿ã«å¯Ÿã㊠2 ã€ã®ã¢ãã«ããªã¢ã³ããè©äŸ¡ãããªãŒããŒããŒããçæããŸã : predictor.leaderboard(test_data) ãã¡ã€ã³ãã¥ãŒãã³ã°ã®çµæããã¹ãããŒã¿ã«ããã MASE ã®å€ã瀺ãããã«ãäºæž¬ç²ŸåºŠã倧å¹
ã«åäžããŸãããAutoGluon-TimeSeries ã®ãã¹ãŠã®ã¢ãã«ã¯ãè©äŸ¡ææšã®å€ã倧ããã»ã©æ§èœãè¯ããšãã圢åŒã§çµæã衚瀺ããŸããã€ãŸããMASE ã®ãããªå€ãã®äºæž¬èª€å·®ææšã¯ã衚瀺æã« -1 ãä¹ããŠå€æãããŸãã å€éšæ
å ±ãçšãã Chronos-Bolt ã®æ¡åŒµ Chronos-Bolt ã¯åå€éã¢ãã«ã§ãããäºæž¬ãè¡ãéã«å¯Ÿè±¡ãšãªãæç³»åã®éå»ããŒã¿ã®ã¿ã䜿çšããŸããããããå®éã®ã·ããªãªã§ã¯ã察象ãšãªãæç³»åã«é¢é£ãã远å ã®å€éšæ
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±å€éååž°ã¢ãã«ã®çµã¿åããæ¹ã瀺ãããã«ã飿åã®è²©å£²ããŒã¿ã»ããã䜿çšããŸãããã®ããŒã¿ã»ããã«ã¯ã scaled_price ã promotion_email ã promotion_homepage ãšãã 3 ã€ã®å€éšç¹åŸŽéãå«ãŸããŠããã unit_sales ã®äºæž¬ãè¡ããŸãïŒ train_data = TimeSeriesDataFrame.from_path( "https://autogluon.s3.amazonaws.com/datasets/timeseries/grocery_sales/train.csv", id_column="item_id", timestamp_column="timestamp", ) 以äžã®ã³ãŒãã¯ãä»åŸ 7 é±é unit_sales ãäºæž¬ããããã« TimeSeriesPredictor ãèšå®ããŸãã TimeSeriesPredictor ã®æ§ç¯æã«ãäºæž¬å¯Ÿè±¡ãšããã¿ãŒã²ããåãšå©çšå¯èœãªå€éšç¹åŸŽéã®ååãæå®ããŠããŸããChronos-Bolt ã«å¯Ÿã㊠2 ã€ã®èšå®ãå®çŸ©ããŠããŸã : 1 ã€ç®ã¯å€éšç¹åŸŽéãèæ
®ããã unit_sales ã®éå»ã®æç³»åããŒã¿ã®ã¿ã䜿çšãã远å åŠç¿ãªãã®èšå®ã2 ã€ç®ã¯å€éšç¹åŸŽéãæŽ»çšããèšå®ã§ãCatBoost ã¢ãã«ã covariate_regressor ãšããŠäœ¿çšããŸãããŸãã target_scaler ã䜿çšããŠãããããã«ããæç³»åããŒã¿ã¯åŠç¿åã«æ¯èŒå¯èœãªã¹ã±ãŒã«ã«èª¿æŽãããéåžžããé«ã粟床ãåŸãããŸãã predictor = TimeSeriesPredictor( prediction_length=7, eval_metric="MASE", target="unit_sales", known_covariates_names=["scaled_price", "promotion_email", "promotion_homepage"], ).fit( train_data, hyperparameters={ "Chronos": [ {"model_path": "bolt_small", "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "ZeroShot"}}, { "model_path": "bolt_small", "covariate_regressor": "CAT", "target_scaler": "standard", "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "WithRegressor"}, }, ], }, time_limit=600, enable_ensemble=False, ) äºæž¬ã¢ãã«ã®åŠç¿åŸããã¹ãããŒã¿ã»ããã§è©äŸ¡ãè¡ãããªãŒããŒããŒããçæããããšãã§ããŸããå
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¥æã§ããŸãïŒ åèæç® [1] Ansari, Abdul Fatir, Lorenzo Stella, Ali Caner Turkmen, Xiyuan Zhang, Pedro Mercado, Huibin Shen, Oleksandr Shchur, et al. âChronos: Learning the language of time series.â Transactions on Machine Learning Research (2024). [2] Hyndman, R. J., and G. Athanasopoulos. âForecasting: principles and practice 3rd Ed.â O Texts (2018). [3] Salinas, David, Valentin Flunkert, Jan Gasthaus, and Tim Januschowski. âDeepAR: Probabilistic forecasting with autoregressive recurrent networks.â International Journal of Forecasting 36, no. 3 (2020): 1181-1191. [4] Nie, Yuqi, Nam H. Nguyen, Phanwadee Sinthong, and Jayant Kalagnanam. âA time series is worth 64 words: long-term forecasting with transformers.â In The Eleventh International Conference on Learning Representations (2023). [5] Raffel, Colin, Noam Shazeer, Adam Roberts, Katherine Lee, Sharan Narang, Michael Matena, Yanqi Zhou, Wei Li, and Peter J. Liu. âExploring the limits of transfer learning with a unified text-to-text transformer.â Journal of Machine Learning Research 21, no. 140 (2020): 1-67. [6] Godahewa, Rakshitha, Christoph Bergmeir, Geoffrey I. Webb, Rob J. Hyndman, and Pablo Montero-Manso. âMonash time series forecasting archive.â In NeurIPS Track on Datasets and Benchmarks (2021). èè
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